Long-Term Solar Variability (LSV) Section
Comparative Solar Minima
The solar activity cycle, as manifested by repeated increase and then decrease in the number of sunspots visible on the Sun, has been observed and analyzed for centuries. However, only for the past two to three ~11-year activity cycles have new capabilities in satellite and ground-based observations allowed us to consider how a broad range of solar, heliospheric, and geospace observables vary within and between cycles. These observations, in conjunction with theoretical and numerical modeling advances, enable an interdisciplinary, system-wide view on the origins and impacts of solar cycle variation.
An Unusual Minimum
Solar minimum represents the time of lowest solar activity and simplest heliospheric structure, and as such is a good place to begin putting together a system-wide understanding. However, recent observations imply complexities in the variation within and between solar minima that have implications for analyzing and predicting space weather responses at the Earth during solar quiet intervals, and also for interpreting the Sun's past behavior as preserved in cosmogenic isotopes and historical sunspot and aurorae records. For example, the current solar cycle minimum is very quiet, with the sunspot number dropping to its lowest values in at least 75 years. Additionally, latest data indicate that the total solar irradiance (TSI) of the current minimum is lower than the value of the past two solar minima, that the polar magnetic fields are about 40% weaker than during the previous minimum (Figure 1), and that the solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field strength are likewise at the lowest values observed in the space age.
Figure 1: Net polar magnetic flux as measured at the Sun's photosphere between 60° and 80° latitude by SOHO/MDI (squares) and at NSO (diamonds) from 1995 to 2010. The polar magnetic flux has been at about the same level since 2004 and is significantly lower than during the previous minimum in 1996. See De Toma (2011).
However, despite this global "weakness", the Sun continued to send out strong solar wind gusts during low-activity months that acted as periodic drivers of the Earth's space environment and upper atmosphere, sustaining the population of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt even in 2008 when sunspots had reached record lows (Figure 2). This was in contrast to the past cycle, in which the radiation belts faded away before solar minimum, and was a direct consequence of a more complex magnetic configuration at the Sun. In particular, the coronal magnetic field this cycle did not simplify to a dipole and the heliospheric current sheet remained substantially warped (Figure 3) even after sunspots and TSI decreased dramatically. It is possible that these seemingly discrepant observations are jointly consequences of the weakened polar magnetic field. In any event, it is clear that the sunspot number does not tell the whole story about how the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's geospace environment may be substantially altered during times of low solar activity.
Figure 2: Artist's conception of the sun-heliosphere-Earth system for the last two solar minimum. Compared are solar wind morphology (faster wind streams indicated in yellow emanating from coronal holes), impact for the Earth's radiation belt (large relativistic electron population indicated by red), and cosmic rays (high levels indicated by number of squiggly red arrows). See Gibson et al. (2009) and Gibson et al. (2011).
Figure 3: White-light images of the solar corona from LASCO/C2 for the previous solar minimum on February 20, 1996 (left panel), and the recent minimum (last three panels) on February 15, 2007, July 25, 2008, and May 22, 2009. All images correspond to very quiet times: the observed sunspot number for the four days was 8, 0, 8, and 0, respectively. During the 1996 minimum, the shape of the corona was dipolar and coronal streamers were confined to a narrow region around the heliographic equator while in 2007, 2008, and 2009 coronal streamers extended to relatively high heliolatitudes. See De Toma et al. (2010).
Analyses of solar-wind composition data also indicate differences between the most recent solar minimum and prior ones, although without necessarily requiring revision of concepts relating the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. These studies demonstrate that there are two distinct regions of solar wind: solar wind likely to originate from the stalk of the streamer belt (the highly elongated loops that underlie the heliospheric current sheet), and solar wind from outside this region. The region outside the streamer-stalk region is noticeably larger in the Cycle 23–24 minimum; however, the increased area can account for the reduction in the heliospheric magnetic-field strength in this minimum. Thus, the total magnetic flux contained in this region is the same in the two minima. Various correlations among the solar-wind mass flux and coronal electron temperature inferred from solar-wind charge states were developed for the Cycle 22–23 solar minimum. The data for the Cycle 23–24 minimum suggest that the correlations still hold, and thus the basic acceleration mechanism is unchanged in this minimum.
Figure 4: (a) An illustration of the motions of the magnetic field on the Sun in the frame corotating with the equatorial rotation rate (Fisk, 1996, 2005; Fisk, Zurbuchen, and Schwadron, 1999b; Fisk and Schwadron 2001). The M-axis is the axis of symmetry for the expansion of the magnetic field from a polar coronal hole. The Ω-axis is the solar rotation axis. P marks one of the open lines (green) that connects to the Pole. The curves with arrows (red) are the trajectories of the open lines. (b)The open lines reconnect and diffuse outside the streamer-stalk region, which is marked in yellow. See Zhao and Fisk (2010).
International Campaigns and Working Groups
Determining the solar origins and net impacts at the Earth of solar minimum differences requires coordinated, interdisciplinary modeling efforts to bring the pieces together. The current and last cycle minima were well-studied via international observational and modeling coordinated campaigns known as the Whole Sun Month (WSM) and the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI). The observations taken during these campaign periods were analyzed (and continue to be analyzed) via a series of workshops and special sessions at national and international meetings. The goals of these campaigns were to characterize the 3-D solar minimum heliosphere and to trace the effects of solar structures and activity through the solar wind to the Earth and other planetary systems, and beyond. The modus operandi of both WHI and WSM has been to coordinate comprehensive observations of the global heliosphere near solar minimum, including focused, quantitative observations designed to provide constraints on models of the Sun-Earth coupled system. Side-by-side modeling efforts then allow both intra-model and model-data validation and comparison. Results from WSM may be found in a special issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics (May 1, 1999), and similarly results from WHI may be found in a topical issue of the journal "Solar Physics" on The Sun-Earth Connection near Solar Minimum.
As a means of extending the WSM and WHI legacy, an International Astronomical Working Group on Comparative Solar Minima was formed. The mission of this working group is to facilitate international and interdisciplinary research that focusses on the coupled Sun-Earth system during solar minimum periods, and to this end the working group organized and sponsored IAU Symposium 286, "Comparative Magnetic Minima: Characterizing Quiet Times in the Sun and Stars", which was held in Mendoza, Argentina from 3 to 7 October 2011. The goal of IAU Symposium 286 was to consider solar and stellar minima, from generative dynamo mechanisms to in-depth analyses from Sun to Earth for recent well-observed and modeled minima, to a range of stellar cyclic activity, to outlier "grand minima". Solar, heliospheric, geospace, atmospheric, stellar, and planetary sciences were included in the meeting's scope.
(See e.g. Judge and Thompson, 2012).