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Colloquia
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NOAA SEC seminar :
"A Comparison of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods"
Graham Barnes
CoRA
Date: Nov 1st
Time: 10:30AM
Location: NOAA/David Scaggs Research Center Room GC402 MultiPurpose Room
Abstract: Solar flares produce X-rays which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their effects. The energy available for flares is believed to be stored in the magnetic fields of active regions, and triggered or released by magnetic reconnection in the corona. Recently, the number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated, with widely varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. I will present a systematic comparison of a small number of parameters, some of which characterize the photospheric field itself, and some which characterize the coronal magnetic topology. Judging their ability to forecast flares based on discriminant analysis, climatological skill scores, and the ability to provide an ``all-clear'' forecast, there is no clear distinction among the parameters, and I will argue that none perform particularly well. I will then discuss some possible avenues for improved forecasting.
This work was funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under contracts F49620-03-C-0019 and FA9550-06-C-0019.
Contact: Alysha Reinard.
Workshops
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